Football – The Dutch team play their final match of Group B this evening against Chile with the group winners probably playing easier second round and quarter-final matches than the team which ends as runners-up. The Infostrada Sports Forecast model has simulated both possibilities and Holland’s chances of winning the World Cup are more than doubled if they win Group B.
If the Dutch finish second in Group B, their chances of winning the World Cup are under 5% according to Forecast. However, an easier route to the final awaits with an outright Group win and then Dutch chances rise to nearly 11%.
It is a similar story for rivals Chile of course whose chances of becoming 2014 World Champions are just over 3% as group runners-up but nearly 9% if they win the group.