BEHIND THE DESK: How Euro 2012 tiebreakers work

FOOTBALL - What bliss it would be if teams competing in major sports events never finished on equal points. Handing out trophies and medals would be so easy. But such is not the case. Lists of tiebreakers (ordered in a certain hierarchy) are the rule. Interpreting these tiebreakers is an Infostrada Sports Group specialty. Let us take you back to tonight’s Euro 2012 matches to see what happened to the numbers as the games progressed. 

Day begins: easy as ABC

The Group A table from the outset looked like this:

1. RUS 2-4 (5-2) +3

2. CZE 2-3 (3-5) -2

3. POL 2-2 (2-2) 0

4. GRE 2-1 (2-3) -1

No need for tiebreakers, no teams on equal points.

Kickoff time: start virtual ranking

Add one match and one point for each team, all are still drawing 0-0:

1. RUS 3-5 (5-2) +3

2. CZE 3-4 (3-5) -2

3. POL 3-3 (2-2) 0

4. GRE 3-2 (2-3) -1

Still no need for tiebreakers, no teams on equal points.

Greece go 1-0 up against Russia

This shakes up our table in a big way. Add two points to Greece for improving from a draw to a win and subtract one point from Russia for going from a draw to a defeat.

1. RUS 3-4 (5-3) +2

2. GRE 3-4 (3-3) 0

3. CZE 3-4 (3-5) -2

4. POL 3-3 (2-2) 0

And we need a tiebreaker now, and it is a three-way tiebreaker, because three teams are now finishing on four points. Head-to-head records are a superior tiebreaker (at Euro 2012) to goal differential and we now have to look at what the three have done against each other. Let’s build a virtual table concerning only these three teams, and disregard their results v Poland.

1. RUS 2-3 (4-2) +2

2. GRE 2-3 (2-2) 0

3. CZE 2-3 (3-5) -2

Greece may be beating Russia at present, but Russia are top on the strength of their big win vs Czech Republic. Since this three-way tie can only exist with Greece winning and the Czechs drawing, we know this: the Czechs’ goal differential is fixed at minus-2. The Greek goal differential is not fixed, yet can only improve. The Russian differential is not fixed and can only decline. Suppose Greece would improve to 3-0 in their match. It would look like this.

1. GRE 2-3 (4-2) +2

2. RUS 2-3 (4-4) 0

3. CZE 2-3 (3-5) -2

Greece are now winning the group. What would it take to knock Russia out in this three-way tie? It would take a win by six goal margin or better. At 6-0, it would look like this:

1. GRE 2-3 (7-2) +5

2. CZE 2-3 (3-5) -2

3. RUS 2-3 (4-7) -3

Russia are sitting pretty, right? No. There is a far greater threat to them…

Czech Republic 1-0 up against Poland

The Czechs score and our meticulously researched three-way tie ceases to exist! This is what the virtual table in Group A now looks like. Add two points to the Czechs, deduct one from Poland.

1. CZE 3-6 (4-5) -1

2. GRE 3-4 (3-3) 0

3. RUS 3-4 (5-3) +2

4. POL 3-2 (2-3) -1

Stop the press. Our three-way tie has become a two-way tie and now the head-to-head record between Greece and Russia solely applies. And Greece are winning 1-0. Remarkably, it is one Petr Jirácek goal that has knocked the Russians from first to third place and ultimately, out of the tournament.

This morning - Poland and Greece

We had established that Poland and Greece were essentially in the same boat. Win and you’re through. Anything else and you are out. For Poland it would be because they would leapfrog the Czechs without BOTH the Russians and Greeks able to catch them. For the Greeks, it was because they would always win the two-way tie (with Russia) and they could never be the worst of the three in a three-way tie (with Russia and Czech Republic).

This morning - Czech Republic

We established that the Czechs had better win, because the only way they would survive the three-way tie was when the Greeks would win 6-0 or better. The Czechs won.

This morning - Russia

Russia had only one realistic way of going out. Losing to Greece and the other match not finishing in a draw.  This is exactly what happened.

There is more

I hope this sheds some light on how we handle this oftentimes complicated matter. However, it can become infinitely more  complicated. Infostrada Sports Group prides itself on being the first to establish that Netherlands had qualified for Euro 2012 when they had, on the strength of finishing at least as the best runners-up of all groups. In all groups winning the group or finishing runners-up was a variable. And here comes what made it really tricky: not all groups were equal in size and the bigger groups should ignore their results against the last place finisher. In many groups, this included many variables. So for the next three days, you can trust us. We seem to know what we are doing here. Thanks!

Your Editor-In-Chief