ANALYSE THIS: Odds to progress in Europe after 1st leg

FOOTBALL – When looking purely at the outcome of two-legged knockout ties in Europe historically, it becomes apparent that home sides in the first leg can only become prohibitive favourites to advance, if they win the first leg by at least two clear goals. A draw makes them decided underdogs, even if they deny the visiting team the vital away goal. A defeat is an utter disaster for their chance of progress.

There is only one result from the first leg that gives the home side a chance of anywhere between 50% and 69% of going through: one-nil. And even that creates a ‘coin flip situation’ (58%-42%). Teams that set out for 1-0 and fail to score the one goal are 33-67 underdogs when looking strictly at how these scenarios have played out historically. Which the below table will show you for the most common first leg scores in history.


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