FOOTBALL – Germany are no longer the favourites to lift the FIFA Women’s World Cup. Their chance has decreased to around 20% due to their tough route to the semifinals, where they will probably meet new favourites United States who have a 28% chance of claiming the title.
According to the Infostrada Sports’ analytics team, the two favourites for the world title will meet in the semifinals. If both manage to progress to that semi, Germany will again be the favourites to win the tournament. While the United States have a 76% chance of making it to the quarterfinals, Germany’s chance of also doing so is only around 50-50 due to needing to knock out two nations ranked in the top five to do so. The Germans are therefore more than twice as likely to be eliminated before the semis than the Americans. This is why simulating the tournament 10,000 times before the second round is played leads to the United States ending up as the most likely winner.
If Germany get past both Sweden and France successfully to reach a semifinal against the United States, the Germans will be most likely to go all the way. Based on historic results, a semi between the two big powers of women’s football would be won by Germany 53% of the time and the United States 47%. Hosts Canada are still the favourites to reach the 2015 World Cup final from the other half of the draw but their projected semifinal against Japan is a very tight call.