FOOTBALL – The FIFA World rankings for women’s football have provided a good basis for our forecast so far with seven of our eight favourites in the second round progressing through to the quarter-finals. In addition, our pre-tournament forecast correctly predicted six of the eight quarter-finalists, and two of the exact match-ups (France v Germany and England v Canada) in this round. Our updated forecast for the quarter-final matches expects the United States to play Germany and Japan to play Canada in the last four. These exact semi-final pairings were also predicted in our pre-tournament forecast.
The United States remain the favourites at this stage due to having a much easier quarter-final than world ranked number one Germany. However, if both the USA and Germany reach the semi-finals, Germany will become the favourites to win the competition. This is also the reason why Germany are shown as the most likely winners in our World Cup bracket above as this works by putting the favourites through each time.
The favourites in three of the four quarter-finals have just over 60% chance of progressing to the last four whilst the United States have an 83% chance of knocking out China. Canada are favoured to beat England in the final quarter-final on Saturday, despite being ranked two places below the English in the FIFA World rankings. The home advantage that has been built into the forecast has had the effect of making Canada the more likely of the two to reach the last four.