ANALYSE THIS: PSG more likely to progress than historic results suggest

FOOTBALL – The Champions League first legs have all been played and the favourites to progress generally look in good shape to do so. There are two common ways to assess what the likelihood of going through actually is – the first uses historical results and calculates the frequency with which teams recording a particular result went through. The second uses a statistical model based on team ratings to assess the chances of progress. The two methods give broadly the same chance for each of the four ties won by the away team but if a match is drawn or results in a narrow home win, the chances from the two methods begin to diverge. Continue reading

What are “Scoring Opportunities”?

FOOTBALL – The Guardian’s analysis of Leicester City’s surprise season included a reference to scoring opportunities, one of the numerous variables that we at Infostrada Sports collect in our live coverage of football matches around the world. As explained in the article, this is a measure which counts major chances whether they result in a shot or not. Calculating the difference between scoring opportunities for and against produces a measure which is highly correlated with the league table standings. Below are some examples of goal attempts which would be classified as scoring opportunities.
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THE WAVE: Bayern München – FC Barcelona

FOOTBALL: As you can see in the Wave, Bayern München flew out of the gates and scored directly. After that first goal, Barcelona took over until the closing minutes of the first half. In the second half, Barcelona looked comfortable with Bayern having the initiative  The Spanish side regained the momentum in the very last minutes, but overall Bayern were more dominant.

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ANALYSE THIS: CL draw system increases Group of Death chance

FOOTBALL – The Champions League draw pots for this evening are based on the UEFA coefficients for clubs at the end of last season. Those coefficients are based on a five year performance in European competition. In general, this system works reasonably well for teams which always participate in the Champions League or Europa League. The top three are Real Madrid, Barcelona and Bayern Munich for example. The problem comes with clubs who have not always been present in the previous five years. Using the Euro Club Index as an alternative, we can identify teams who have been misclassified in this year’s draw.

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