ANALYSE THIS: PSG more likely to progress than historic results suggest

FOOTBALL – The Champions League first legs have all been played and the favourites to progress generally look in good shape to do so. There are two common ways to assess what the likelihood of going through actually is – the first uses historical results and calculates the frequency with which teams recording a particular result went through. The second uses a statistical model based on team ratings to assess the chances of progress. The two methods give broadly the same chance for each of the four ties won by the away team but if a match is drawn or results in a narrow home win, the chances from the two methods begin to diverge. Continue reading

IN THE NEWS: Sevilla 4th Spanish team in 2015/2016 CL

FOOTBALL – With Sevilla FC winning the Europa League final, they have automatically qualified for the 2015/2016 Champions League group stage, making it the fourth Spanish side among the 22 teams already qualified for next season’s CL main tournament.

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THE WAVE: FC Barcelona – Bayern München

FOOTBALL – This was a very lively and open match, especially considering the size of the stakes. Bayern attempted to keep pace with the hosts in the possession battle, but soon found Barça’s opportunities piling up. Bayern managed a few chances for themselves, but in the final 15 minutes the floodgates burst and Lionel Messi scored twice and in stoppage time set up Neymar for Barca’s third.

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THE WAVE: Bayern München v Shakhtar Donetsk

FOOTBALL – It started with the fastest red card in Champions League history and an early penalty goal for Bayern, who not only equalled their biggest CL victory, but also the biggest win by any team in a CL match in the knockout stages, their 7-0 win rout of FC Basel on 13 March 2012. Especially in the first half, but also for large portions of the second half, Bayern ripped through Shakhtar Donetsk like a tidal wave.

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