ANALYSE THIS: PSG more likely to progress than historic results suggest

FOOTBALL – The Champions League first legs have all been played and the favourites to progress generally look in good shape to do so. There are two common ways to assess what the likelihood of going through actually is – the first uses historical results and calculates the frequency with which teams recording a particular result went through. The second uses a statistical model based on team ratings to assess the chances of progress. The two methods give broadly the same chance for each of the four ties won by the away team but if a match is drawn or results in a narrow home win, the chances from the two methods begin to diverge. Continue reading

ANALYSE THIS: Premier League rich but performs below par

FOOTBALL – The Deloitte Money League has been released and unsurprisingly, the Euro Club Index ranking, which rates clubs based on performance, is highly correlated with this annual ranking of wealth. Four of the top-five clubs on the Deloitte list are also in the Euro Club Index top-10. Manchester United are the big exception at third in the Money League but ranked only 13th by the Euro Club Index. Another Premier League club, Liverpool, are the ninth richest in the world but are currently only just hanging onto a place in the Euro Club Index top-25. All nine Premier League clubs in Deloitte’s top-20 richest are ranked lower by the Euro Club Index.
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Euro Club Index: Chelsea would win title in 2 seasons out of every 3 from here

With 17 matches remaining in this season’s Premier League, the race to the title currently involves just two teams, one of which has around twice the chance of the other of ending the season as 2014/2015 Premier League champions. Five more clubs have a realistic chance of a top-4 spot whilst eight teams are currently involved in the relegation battle. This leaves just five – West Ham, Swansea City, Stoke City, Newcastle United and Everton – without much left to play for.

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Europa League seedings do not separate best and worst

Due to basing the seedings for the Europa League draws on six matches within uneven groupings which were created by the UEFA coefficient systems, the seedings for today’s Europa League draw do not actually separate the best and worst remaining teams into two separate groups. Using a longer term rating system, the Euro Club Index, reveals that the seeded and unseeded groups both contain some of the best teams left in the competition and the absolute best trio left in the competition are all unseeded.

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ANALYSE THIS: Euro Club Index – Real Madrid return to the top

FOOTBALL – Real Madrid’s wins against Ludogorets and Athletic Bilbao in the last week were enough for them to reclaim the number one position in the Euro Club Index from FC Barcelona who lost one of their two matches.  The other big development at the top of the ranking is that Chelsea have become the number one team in England, taking that mantle over from Manchester City.

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ANALYSE THIS: Euro Club Index – PSG/Arsenal switch only top-10 change

FOOTBALL – Paris Saint-Germain have swapped places with Arsenal in the Euro Club Index over the last week, moving into ninth position with Arsenal dropping to 10th. AC Milan are back in the top-25 for the first time since February, replacing Athletic Bilbao.

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ANALYSE THIS: Euro Club Index – No Premier League team in top-5

FOOTBALL – Italian champions Juventus have climbed to fifth place, their best position in the Euro Club Index since its inception, after wins against Malmö and AC Milan over the last week. However, the big news is that there is no Premier League club in the top-5 for the first time since the Euro Club Index began in 2007. During much of the first couple of years of the Euro Club Index’s existence, there were four clubs – Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester United – in the top-5 but that number gradually declined from November 2009 onwards, the last time that a quartet of Premier League clubs occupied four of the top five places.

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