ANALYSE THIS: PSG more likely to progress than historic results suggest

FOOTBALL – The Champions League first legs have all been played and the favourites to progress generally look in good shape to do so. There are two common ways to assess what the likelihood of going through actually is – the first uses historical results and calculates the frequency with which teams recording a particular result went through. The second uses a statistical model based on team ratings to assess the chances of progress. The two methods give broadly the same chance for each of the four ties won by the away team but if a match is drawn or results in a narrow home win, the chances from the two methods begin to diverge. Continue reading

ANALYSE THIS: Premier League rich but performs below par

FOOTBALL – The Deloitte Money League has been released and unsurprisingly, the Euro Club Index ranking, which rates clubs based on performance, is highly correlated with this annual ranking of wealth. Four of the top-five clubs on the Deloitte list are also in the Euro Club Index top-10. Manchester United are the big exception at third in the Money League but ranked only 13th by the Euro Club Index. Another Premier League club, Liverpool, are the ninth richest in the world but are currently only just hanging onto a place in the Euro Club Index top-25. All nine Premier League clubs in Deloitte’s top-20 richest are ranked lower by the Euro Club Index.
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IN THE NEWS: Sevilla 4th Spanish team in 2015/2016 CL

FOOTBALL – With Sevilla FC winning the Europa League final, they have automatically qualified for the 2015/2016 Champions League group stage, making it the fourth Spanish side among the 22 teams already qualified for next season’s CL main tournament.

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REVIEW: English exodus in Europe greatest in 22 years

FOOTBALL –  Everton’s elimination by Dynamo Kyiv means that thee are no English teams left in Europe this season.  For the first time in 22 years, there will not be a single English club in the quarterfinals of the various European cup competitions. Ever since 1992/93, England have always sent at least one representative to the last eight in Europe. The seven English sides that embarked on their European adventure this season were Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester City, Everton, Tottenham Hotspur and Hull City.

ANALYSE THIS: Is Experience a Denominator for Success?

FOOTBALL – How important is experience for a team’s success? Do teams with more experienced players perform better in the league or do they benefit more from fresh, new players? While ‘experience’ is a difficult concept to actually capture in numbers, we came up with a simple way of trying to compare experience with success, taking the 2014/15 Premier League as an example. Continue reading