ANALYSE THIS: PSG more likely to progress than historic results suggest

FOOTBALL – The Champions League first legs have all been played and the favourites to progress generally look in good shape to do so. There are two common ways to assess what the likelihood of going through actually is – the first uses historical results and calculates the frequency with which teams recording a particular result went through. The second uses a statistical model based on team ratings to assess the chances of progress. The two methods give broadly the same chance for each of the four ties won by the away team but if a match is drawn or results in a narrow home win, the chances from the two methods begin to diverge. Continue reading

ANALYSE THIS: Premier League rich but performs below par

FOOTBALL – The Deloitte Money League has been released and unsurprisingly, the Euro Club Index ranking, which rates clubs based on performance, is highly correlated with this annual ranking of wealth. Four of the top-five clubs on the Deloitte list are also in the Euro Club Index top-10. Manchester United are the big exception at third in the Money League but ranked only 13th by the Euro Club Index. Another Premier League club, Liverpool, are the ninth richest in the world but are currently only just hanging onto a place in the Euro Club Index top-25. All nine Premier League clubs in Deloitte’s top-20 richest are ranked lower by the Euro Club Index.
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IN THE NEWS: Sevilla 4th Spanish team in 2015/2016 CL

FOOTBALL – With Sevilla FC winning the Europa League final, they have automatically qualified for the 2015/2016 Champions League group stage, making it the fourth Spanish side among the 22 teams already qualified for next season’s CL main tournament.

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THE WAVE: Paris Saint-Germain v FC Barcelona

FOOTBALL – FC Barcelona won by 3-1. Barcelona were very dominant in the first half hour of the match. After that, Paris Saint-Germain took over but failed to score in their dominant part of the match. When Barcelona reclaimed the momentum, they also scored directly. After the 2-0, both teams enjoyed some strong moments, with resulted in a single goal for both. Continue reading

ANALYSE THIS: Euro Club Index – PSG/Arsenal switch only top-10 change

FOOTBALL – Paris Saint-Germain have swapped places with Arsenal in the Euro Club Index over the last week, moving into ninth position with Arsenal dropping to 10th. AC Milan are back in the top-25 for the first time since February, replacing Athletic Bilbao.

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