GENERAL – Australia has moved into fourth position in the Infostrada Sports’ Virtual Medal Table (VMT) after the inclusion of athletics and swimming personal bests since May 2015 took projected golds away from Germany and Great Britain and added four medals to Australia’s forecast total. Continue reading
Latest Rio 2016 forecast predicts a decline in medals for Great Britain in comparison to London 2012.
SWIMMING – After 17 of 40 medal events at the 2013 FINA World Swimming Championships, Russia are performing better than expected, having won three medals so far, while Australia have some catching up to do based on the Infostrada Sports Virtual Medal Table. Australia are on six medals, but should be on 10 according to the VMT predictions.
In the infographic below you can see each country’s performance. You can click on the image to go to the interactive part to switch between gender, medals and medal tables.
Missy Franklin (USA) has won three gold medals at these world championships and she is two gold medals shy of the women’s record of winning five gold medals at a single edition. Franklin can extend her total to four gold medals if she is part of the winning 4x200m Freestyle team on Thursday, 1 August. However, our Virtual Medal Table predicts that the USA will finish behind Australia
Franklin has another shot at gold in the 100m Freestyle, tomorrow, 2 August, although she is predicted to finish outside the medals in fourth place.
With the 200m Backstroke (3 Aug) and the 4×100 Medley Relay (4 Aug) to come, Franklin is still expected to reach five gold medals in Barcelona and thereby equaling the record set by Tracy Caulkins (USA, 1978) and Libby Trickett (AUS, 2007).
Swimming sensation Katie Ledecky (USA) can become the second youngest woman to win three WCh gold medals in individual events if she wins the 800m Freestyle on 3 August. Ledecky will be 16 years and 139 days on Saturday and you can check out below the list of youngest women to reach three gold medals in individual events.
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OLYMPIC GAMES – You may have seen our Virtual Medal Table ahead of the Olympic Games predicting the country medal table and all 302 individual events. We have processed all completed events and have refreshed our projection. Click Read More to see our Infographic and click on the graph to make it interactive!
OLYMPICS – Australia have targeted six medals in athletics at London 2012, something they haven’t done for 44 years. Our Virtual Medal Table projects them to win only three. Who’s right?
As far as projections for Australia’s athletics team for London 2012 go, there’s one medal that pretty much everyone agrees on: gold for world champion Sally Pearson in the women’s 100m hurdles. After that, it’s anyone’s guess.
Australia is targeting a haul of six medals in the Olympic stadium, even though they have not won more than four at any Olympic Games since Mexico City in 1968.
The latest Infostrada Sports Group Virtual Medal Table, which is published monthly in The Australian, the Daily Telegraph and the Herald Sun in Australia, is less optimistic and predicts three medals. Other than Pearson’s gold, we foresee silver for Mitchell Watt in the men’s long jump* and bronze for Jared Tallent in the men’s 50km walk.
* With our gold medal favourite Dwight Phillips’ withdrawal, this is now a golden projection for Watt. Thanks to Astrid for pointing this out in the comments.
The Virtual Medal Table also envisages three further fourth-place finishes for Australia, and the fate of these athletes will ultimately determine which projection model ends up closer to the truth.
Projecting Steven Hooker’s final placing in the men’s pole vault in London is a fool’s errand. When the Virtual Medal Table was launched in late 2010, he was the reigning Olympic and world champion and was firmly entrenched in the gold medal position. However, a run of injuries, poor form and a case of the ‘yips’ over the last 18 months saw him barely qualify for London. He has slipped down to fourth in our projection, but where he finishes is anyone’s guess. In his four major meets since the beginning of 2011, he has recorded a sixth, and eighth and two no marks.
Our other fourth-place projections were for Dani Samuels in women’s discus throw and Fabrice Lapierre in men’s long jump, though Lapierre failed to qualify for London. Samuels, the 2009 world champion, has been around the medals in most major meets in the last couple of years, but will need to improve significantly on her 10th place at last year’s world championships to climb into the medals in London.
The Virtual Medal Table only has two other projected Australian Top 8 results – Tallent in the 20km walk (7th) and the men’s 4x400m relay team (6th). These can be considered outside medal chances.
Overall, six medals seems possible but more the view of the optimist rather than the realist. For Australia to win six athletics medals in London, everything has to go right and some athletes will need to overachieve. If there’s a hiccup or two, the six-medal dream will start to fade.
And if Sally Pearson clips a hurdle, all bets are off.
SWIMMING – The French swimming federation is targeting up to 10 medals at London 2012 following their national championships last week. Our Virtual Medal Table projection has them only winning four medals at the Olympics. Who’s right?
France’s national swimming championships concluded yesterday and they have qualified 29 swimmers for London 2012. “We’re really satisfied. We have the potential for eight to 10 medals,” said French swimming federation president Francis Luyce.
VIRTUAL MEDAL TABLE NOT AS OPTIMISTIC
The latest Infostrada Sports Group Virtual Medal Table, published before the Olympic trials, had France on course for six medals. The failure of Alain Bernard and Jeremy Stravius to even make the French team for individual events, however, lowers our projection to four medals.
Looking at this in greater depth, at five Olympic and world championship meets between 2004 and 2009, France won between four and six medals each time, in line with the VMT projection for London. In fact, they had never won more than six medals at any Olympic or world championship meet until last year’s world championships.
In Shanghai, France’s medal tally rose to an unprecedented 10, undoubtedly the main reason for their bullish prediction for London. However, the VMT has taken the world championship results into account and weighted them appropriately as the most recent major international meet, and still can’t come up with more than two individual medals and two relay medals for France in London. These are: Camille Lacourt in the Men’s 100m Backstroke, Camille Muffat in the Women’s 400m Freestyle and both men’s freestyle relays.
This suggests that the performances of some of the other French medallists in Shanghai were out of line with the form that they showed before and have shown since. That isn’t to say that they can’t duplicate those performances in London, but the overall body of work in the last Olympic cycle suggests that they are unlikely to do so.
Finally, the return of 2004 Olympic gold medallist Laure Manaudou from retirement to qualify for two events for London (one of which she is considering giving to a friend) makes her a wildcard for all concerned. Because of her scarce results in the last Olympic cycle, the Virtual Medal Table does not have her in a medal position in either the 100m or 200m backstroke. However, the French Olympic team will be counting on her to not only return to the podium in individual events but also bolster the medley relay team. A strong performance from her and a couple of other surprises could lift France from a medal total similar to what we have projected to one more in line with what the French swimming team is hoping for.
OLYMPIC GAMES – Team USA are projected to win 40 gold medals if the 2012 London Olympic Games were to be concluded today, three more than China’s projected 37. China, however, are expected to win most overall medals. Infostrada Sports Group and USA Today have teamed up to give you the projection. Click here see where your country ranks. And click here to meet the premier representatives of Team USA.